The quantity and quality of cotton doubled into a new market

In recent years, the planting area in the main cotton producing areas has declined rapidly. Crops with low inputs such as corn and less labor are continuously squeezing cotton planting areas. In the future, the lack of production in the cotton market in China will be the norm, and the current pattern of oversupply in the cotton market will be improved. . In addition, if the Chinese government can adjust the cotton import quantity in an orderly and orderly manner, it will further accelerate the formation of a new market pattern.

Both yield and total output decline

“Before July of this year, Xinjiang was basically weathered and the cotton production status was the best in recent years. Many farmers gave high hopes for the harvest of cotton. After entering July, most regions in Xinjiang had high temperatures, and in some regions the maximum temperature exceeded 40. °C, this is extremely detrimental to the growth of cotton, and the amount of cotton bottoms and loins is not as good as in previous years. In the middle and early August, the high-temperature weather not only continued, but also the windy weather. In late August, the continuous cold weather has continued. Affected the formation of cotton top peach, but also postponed the boll opening time, making some cotton appeared a large number of green peach and stiff peach.” Ma Congbao, general manager of Urumqi City Midong Cotton Co., Ltd. told the ** Daily reporter, is expected this year Xinjiang's cotton production is not as good as last year.

The reporter visited Yanzhixin Agricultural Cooperatives and Gulling Factory, Xinjiang Zhutian Land Logistics Co., Ltd., Yinli Cotton Industry Group, Shihezi Tianyin Logistics Co., Ltd., Zhujiazhuang Community of Beiquan Town, Shihezi City, and Kuitun Kangrui Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. along the way. Minhang Cotton Industry, North Xinjiang Nongjiale Co., Ltd., Jinghe County Haixiang Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., and agricultural fifth division cotton and linen supply and marketing companies, and some of the above-mentioned areas of cotton farmers, ginning factory workers and responsible persons, cotton Brokers exchanged ideas and carefully looked at the growth of cotton in the field.

From the analysis of the situation held by reporters, this year's Xinjiang cotton yields and total output will both decline, and production cuts are a foregone conclusion.

It is understood that in order to guide the rationalization of the planting structure of crop varieties, this year in the cotton growing season, Xinjiang's relevant departments have issued some measures and policies to guide farmers to reduce cotton cultivation. Some secondary cotton and low-yielding cotton areas have been replanted with other crops. At the same time, due to the needs of urban construction, many areas occupy a part of cotton fields. In addition, due to the decline in crop yields in recent years, some cotton growers have replanted corn, wheat, vegetables, melons, gourd gourds and fruit trees, which has led to a decline in cotton plantings this year.

“In 2014, there were 39.2 million mu of cotton planted in Xinjiang, which is estimated to be only 33.3 million mu this year, and the cotton planting area of ​​the local and the Corps are all reduced by about 15%.” Zhang Wenmin, general manager of Huaxin Wanda ** Cotton Industry Department, told this reporter, As a result of the reduction in planting area, in the case of normal yields, this alone will reduce the total cotton production in Xinjiang by about 500,000 tons. Dafu, general manager of Xinjiang Zhutian Earth Logistics Co., Ltd., is a native of Xinjiang. According to him, three years ago, cotton plants were planted around the company, and almost no one can be found.

Reporters from Urumqi City to Shihezi City saw the most crops along the way were corn, wheat, millet and fruit trees. In the past, 40% of the land along the way was planted with cotton, which is now only 10%. Many farmers told reporters that there is little investment in planting corn, and the income is high, the risk is small, the cotton input is large, losses are large, and the cotton is not planted.

In addition to the reduction in planting area, yields also declined. “The high temperature of more than 39°C for 7 months and 8 months was 19 days, which seriously affected the normal growth of cotton. The number of peaches in this year's cotton was significantly lower than last year. The weight of single bells also dropped significantly.” Zhujiazhuang Community, Beiquan Town, Shihezi City The responsible person responsible for the production of 73,000 mu of cotton fields said that the cotton production this year was 370-380 kg/mu (seed cotton, the same below). The actual output after only a part of the machine harvested was only 280-290 kg/mu, and the cotton boll weight was heavy. From last year's 5 grams to 4.1-4.2 grams, preliminary estimates for cotton production this year have fallen by 20%-25% from last year.

In some cotton fields, reporters saw that this year's cotton does not generally have top peaches, and the number of bottom peaches and loin peaches is not large. Many cotton plants also have a large number of completely tightly packed green peaches, and these temperatures are further reduced as the temperature drops further. Peach is basically useless. In addition, the reporter also found that due to the weather, many defoliants have hit the phenomenon of jamming, there are many flat peaches, which will affect the cotton yield and total production. However, there are still some production areas due to the management in place and the cultivation of high temperature resistant hybrid cotton, its yield and total production are not affected.

Sun Tao, who has been engaged in the cotton trading business in Xinjiang for 11 years, said that as a whole, this year's Xinjiang cotton suffered adverse weather damage in the late growth period. Whether it was in northern Xinjiang or southern Xinjiang, the cotton yield was not as good as last year, and it is estimated that this will eventually lead to The total output has dropped sharply, and the new cotton resources will be relatively tight.

New cotton quality is not optimistic

A person in charge of a cotton and linen company in Shawan County told the reporter that since the listing of Xinmian, the company has tested the cotton lint length, lint, and horse value of 71 cotton varieties. The average length of lint is 27.3 mm, and Compared with previous years, it was at a lower level. At present, new cotton is available in various regions of Xinjiang. Most of them are hand picking cotton. The reason why hand picking cotton is listed early is that the main reason is that in order to facilitate mechanical operations, it is necessary to manually pick cotton from the land in advance.

According to the analysis of several reporters who have already started ginning factories, the quality of new cotton is not optimistic. The main reason is that the length of cotton velvet is far lower than in previous years. The length of cotton velvet in most cotton is 26-28 mm, which exceeds 29 mm. less. At the same time, the cotton horses that have been picked are generally on the high side, and the cotton clothing points have not reached the previous expectations. In order to improve the quality of cotton and make the processed lint cotton meet the purchasing standards of textile companies, the ginning factories in Xinjiang and BINGTUAN have stepped up their quality management efforts this year. For example, in order to reduce the “three wires,” the Corps and other departments dealt with the treatment of cotton fields. The cotton picker operations, seed cotton loading and unloading, and transportation have established detailed operating procedures and require the workers to operate strictly according to the prescribed procedures.

From the current situation of cotton bolling around Xinjiang, the Corps is more consistent, most of the cotton has been sprayed with defoliants, and local cotton farmers planted cotton bolling there is a big difference. It is understood that the end of September will usher in machine mining peaks, including this year, the northern Xinjiang Corps will account for 90% of the proportion of cotton picking, local machine picking ratio will rise to 60% -65%, while the southern Xinjiang Corps machine mining The proportion of cotton will increase to more than 50%, and the proportion of local machine cotton will be around 5%.

From the point of view of the quality of hand-picked cotton and machine-picking cotton, the quality of hand-picked cotton is better than that of machine-picking cotton. However, the gap between the two will be reduced this year. The main reason for this is that most users of machine-harvested cotton are used by the Corps and Agriculture. Cooperatives, machine-operated operation technology has improved much more than last year, plus a lot of basic work has been done in the selection, planting, and field management of cotton, which has greatly improved the quality of machine-picking cotton.

However, market professionals estimate that the overall quality of new cotton this year will be difficult to achieve the expected target, which will lead to a limited number of high-quality cotton resources this year, which will intensify the current tight supply of high-quality cotton in the domestic cotton market. In addition, the domestic cotton market will also show the development trend of high quality and high prices, which will be conducive to the promotion of fine cotton varieties, and will guide the norms and large-scale cultivation of cotton farmers, and at the same time it will also contribute to the improvement of the degree of cotton mechanization.

Buying is emerging in the new cotton acquisition market

At present, Xinmian around Xinjiang has begun to be listed, mainly in hand picking cotton, machine picking cotton is only listed on a sporadic basis. Due to the fact that the actual production of new cotton in many regions was not as expected, the decline in new cotton yields in some regions was too large, and cotton processing capacity was seriously excessive. After the listing of new cotton, cotton brokers, traders, and ginning factories appeared to various degrees in various production regions. Raising prices to buy new cotton.

According to the reporter's analysis of the situation in Xinjiang's new cotton acquisition market, the current acquisition of new cotton is a bit messy, and the quotes of cotton brokers, traders, and ginners vary, and the requirements for new cotton acquisition quality vary widely. This makes cotton farmers at a loss. At the same time, the decline in the measured output has also caused the cotton farmers to reluctantly sell and wait and see mentality, resulting in the new cotton acquisition market this year is more complex.

“The two ginning factories set up in Xinjiang were ready for the acquisition on September 10, and began trial purchases on September 15. The initial purchase price was 5.3 yuan per kilogram. The same below), but waiting for a few days to send a cotton car to patronize, but unfortunately had to raise the purchase price to 5.8-6 yuan per kilogram, but only to receive more than 200 tons of seed cotton.” Shihezi City, a cotton trader told reporters that this year New cotton acquisition is more difficult, cotton farmers and cotton brokers first asked for market conditions before selling cotton, and will go to a number of ginning mills to understand the situation, and each ginners are holding the buying attitude, which makes this year's new cotton The acquisition did not go smoothly.

According to report, the current purchase price of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang is 4.5-4.8 yuan per kilogram, the minimum purchase price in some areas is 4.2 yuan, and the lowest purchase price for hand-picked cotton is about 4.5 yuan, and the purchase price of good quality has reached 6 yuan. However, from the point of the cost of hand picking cotton and machine-picking cotton to produce lint, the production cost of machine-picking cotton will be higher than that of hand picking cotton. The main reason is that machine picking cotton has higher discounts and losses.

According to the current purchase price of newly-produced seed cotton in Xinjiang, which is estimated at 5.5-6 yuan per kilogram, the ex-factory price of lint in middle and higher grades in Xinjiang will reach 13,000 yuan/ton or more. Compared with the current Zheng cotton price, the Zheng cotton price is a bit Low. According to the analysis of the development trend of new seed cotton purchase prices rising day by day, domestic spot lint prices may usher in a wave of rising prices.

Market demand to be activated

Compared with the fiery acquisition of the new seed cotton market, the current demand in the domestic cotton market is particularly cold. Sun Tao said that in the middle and late September of last year, the mainland textile enterprises had high enthusiasm for purchasing Xinjiang cotton, and the settlement price sent to the factory was also relatively cost-effective. At that time, a large amount of Xinjiang cotton was transported by steam to reach the mainland market and steam was delivered to some regions. The freight rate is as high as 1,100 yuan/ton, but it still does not affect the enthusiasm of the mainland textile enterprises in purchasing Xinjiang cotton.

“From the analysis of Xinjiang's cotton shipments in Xinjiang this year, the volume of outbound shipments since September has been much less than last year, and the demand for Xinjiang's cotton outbound shipments has fallen to a lower level in recent years.” In Sun Tao’s view, the economic environment is relatively low. Poor, as well as the backlog of textile products in the Mainland, coupled with the difficulties in cash flow of many textile companies, has caused the sales volume of Xinjiang cotton to decline. However, there are still many large-scale textile companies in the Mainland operating in a better condition. In the first half of September, the situation of cotton production in Xinjiang was investigated. The reason why there is no large amount of procurement is because the new cotton has not yet been listed on the market.

When interviewing large-scale logistics companies and cotton storage companies, the reporter found that the quantity of Chen cotton currently available for sale to the interior of the Xinjiang region is not large. First, many national reserve cotton have been sold or transferred; the second is the quantity of trade cotton. Small, small amount of inventory is also traders have not had time to transport the cotton; Finally, the new cotton is not listed as much as last year, plus quotes are chaotic. The above factors have caused the demand of the current cotton market in Xinjiang to appear relatively sluggish.

Yang Zhijiang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Investment Co., Ltd., believes that the demand for the domestic cotton market has not yet started and the market is in a turning point where demand is heating up. First, domestic cotton prices continue to decline, weakening the price advantage of imported cotton, and the demand for domestically produced cotton will gradually pick up. Second, the restructuring and layout of the textile industry have not yet been finalized. Textile companies need a recovery time for domestic cotton procurement needs. Third, the number of cotton substitutes is declining and the demand for cotton is expected to increase.

When reporters and industry insiders exchanged ideas, due to the recent fluctuations in the global currency exchange rate, the domestic textile companies' desire to accept long-term orders is not strong, and the Canton Fair will soon be held. Many textile companies want to learn more about market trends in the short term. It also affected the sales of domestic cotton, especially Xinjiang cotton.

New market structure is forming

“Since this year's cotton production and quality in Xinjiang have both declined, this year's shortage of domestic cotton market needs to be basically determined.” Zhang Wenmin believes that excluding the impact of State Reserve Cotton sales, if the amount of imported cotton is about the same as last year, the future market pattern of the domestic cotton market Major changes will take place and a new market landscape will emerge.

When the reporter investigated in Jinghe County, Xinjiang, and in the main cotton producing areas in Shandong, Hebei, and Hubei, it was discovered that the planting area in the main cotton producing areas has declined rapidly in recent years, and crops such as corn, which have less input and less labor, are constantly squeezing out cotton cultivation. In terms of area, the shortage of China's cotton market in the future will need to be the norm, and the current pattern of excess supply in the cotton market will improve. In addition, if the Chinese government can adjust the cotton import quantity in an orderly and orderly manner, it will further accelerate the formation of a new market pattern.