South China Morning Review: August 18th date early review

Black early review

1. Rebar: Try more on dips

Today, Tangshan billet rose 50 reports to 3770, and Shanghai 20mm HRB400 thread mainstream rose 50 to 4010. The price of the night trading fluctuated.

This week, social stocks unexpectedly rebounded a lot, which formed a certain suppression of short-term sentiment in the market. The output of rebar is stable, the profit per ton of steel continues to rise, and the operating rate next week is expected to be stable. Demand in the peak season is still expected, inventory is still at a significant risk of decline, and environmental supervision is still strict, and electric furnace production is still slow, all of which support steel prices. However, the risk also needs attention. The traders will overdraw some of the demand; the environmental protection may no longer be across the board; Hebei handles the illegal production capacity record. The SFC's on-site inspection also suppressed risk appetite. Short-term steel price adjustment, but the bullish trend does not change, try more on dips. 1-5 is held in a set.

2. Iron ore: shock

Today's port PB powder 595 yuan / wet tons (+15), yesterday's 62 reported 75.2 (+2.8). The price of the night trading fluctuated.

Steel mills have good profits, stable purchases, and high levels of port clearance. Recently, the demand for high grade ore is good, the supply is concentrated in the hands of a few traders, the price is rising strongly, and the high and low grade spreads have risen to historical highs. The average inventory of steel mills lasted for 27 days. On the supply side, the recent inventory of the port continued to fall slightly, and the shipments in Australia have rebounded. It is expected to gradually return to normal, and the medium-term supply is still sufficient. Short-term Hebei environmental protection limited production sintering machine, pressure iron ore demand, winter environmental protection production limit on iron ore demand pressure, shipping shipments are expected to gradually pick up, the price of minerals will remain volatile. 09 There may be kinetic energy to repair the premium. Short-term wait and see, there is a certain pressure on the long line.

3. Coal char: The rising momentum is still

Coke, the price of coke in Wuhai increased by 80 yesterday, and the sixth round of price increases is in progress. The low level of coke enterprises continued to rise. Although the profit was high, the operating rate continued to rise. However, environmental protection and production restrictions in some areas were still strict, and the concentration of coke plants in the restricted production area was strong. On the demand side, most steel mills have moderate stocks, high profits, good acceptance of the price of the focus, and short-term coke may continue to strengthen. There are uncertainties in the environmental protection and production limit in winter, and the upward momentum of coke is still in progress. The callback is based on the 5-day line.

Coking coal, the price of coking coal in Wuhai area rose by 50 yesterday. Coking profits continued to rise this week, and the operating rate rose. However, some areas were still under the supervision of environmental protection. Steel mills and coking plants continued to supplement coking coal stocks. Due to the strong coke price, spot prices have steadily strengthened. At the supply end, coal mine coking coal stocks continued to decline. Tianjin Port 600717, the stock bar prohibits the transportation of coal, and the safety inspection has imposed certain restrictions on production. Short-term demand is stable and good to support coal prices. There are uncertainties in environmental protection and production in winter, and the demand for coking coal is somewhat suppressed. Callback reference to the 5th line to do more.

4. Glass: more than one single renewal

Since the beginning of this week, the overall trend of the glass spot market has risen steadily, and production companies have sold more than production, and inventory has decreased. Under the effect of rising prices in areas such as East China and Shahe, the spot price also has an overall range of around 20 yuan. Judging from the outbound situation, the Shahe area is obviously better than other areas. The production enterprises are also relatively fast in stocks, and even there is a phenomenon of large price hikes. Some Shahe manufacturers have plans to increase prices this weekend. Traders have a higher enthusiasm for stocking this week, and their stocks have increased to a certain extent in preparation for peak season sales. Technically, the main glass contract remained strong. It hit a new high of 1450 yesterday morning. Yesterday, the market maintained a shock consolidation trend. The positions fell slightly. In terms of operation, it is recommended to continue to hold more.

White sugar early review

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures rose more than 3% late Thursday, boosted by rain forecast in the planting areas of central and southern Brazil. Zheng sugar remained oscillating at night, and the overall center of gravity has moved up. In terms of spot, Liuzhou middlemen quoted 6510-6540 yuan/ton, and Nanning brokers quoted 6480-6520 yuan/ton. From a technical point of view, the daily level, MACD red column expanded, the fast and slow line Jinchao continued upward, and the MACD formed a bottom divergence, KDJ high position was weak, the price of 6300 continued to be under pressure, the 10-day moving average crossed the 40-day moving average. On the 30-minute line, the MACD red column is zoomed out, the fast and slow line heads down, and the KDJ crosses down, but the moving averages remain long. Trading strategy: Zheng sugar will be opened higher by the original sugar today, and more will continue to hold.

Oil and fat oil early review

Information:

1. As of August 10, 2017, 2016/17 (starting on September 1st), US shipments of soybeans to China (Mainland) were 35.256 million tons, up from 28.564 million tons in the same period of last year.

2. The average spot price of US soybean No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.82 US dollars per bush, which was about 360.8 US dollars per ton, up 6.75 cents from the previous trading day. In the central part of Illinois, the average price of soybeans purchased by soybean processing plants was $9.29 per pu, up 8.75 cents from the previous trading day.

3. The Baltic Sea Shipping Exchange's dry bulk freight index rose 40 points on Thursday to 1,247 points, the highest since April 19.

4. The US Department of Agriculture released the global oilseed market trade report for August. The Canadian rapeseed export in 2017/18 is estimated at 11 million tons, which is 200,000 tons lower than the previous month's forecast, as production data is lowered.

operating:

1. Due to strong demand in China and no rain in soybean growing areas, the US soybean futures price closed again in Xiaoyang. It is expected that the white plate may continue to rebound, but there is still pressure on the 10-day line. Even the soybean meal temporarily held the 2700 line. Today, following the rebound of the US soybeans, we should also pay attention to the pressure on the top 10 lines. The dish continues to rely on the 5th water separation operation. Even the empty order of the beans was held by 3925.

2. Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rebounded and closed near the 5th line, paying attention to the effectiveness of the previous 2700 pressure. Even the palm oil night oscillated weakly, it is recommended to oscillate and think empty. Soybean oil night plate was also suppressed by the moving average, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term. The yp spread remains near 880 and continues to hold, with a stop loss of 830. The vegetable oil night plate closed at the 5th line to collect the stars. Compared with other oils, it is recommended to rely on the 10-day line to go down.

Energy and Chemical Review

Tianjiao: Hujiao night plate oscillated weakly, RU1709 contract closed at 13135, 1711 contract closed at 13410, January contract closed at 16420, 19 price difference fell back to 3285. In the news, the China Automobile Association announced the latest production and sales data. In July 2017, the automobile production reached 2.059 million units, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year; the sales volume was 1.97 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. From January to July, the total production and sales of automobiles totaled 15.585 million and 15.325 million, respectively, up 4.7% and 4.1% respectively. Thai raw material market, Hat Ya USS price 55.09 baht / kg (+2.4), tobacco sheet 59 baht / kg (+3.02), cup rubber 44.5 baht / kg (+0.5), glue 53.5 baht / kg (+1.5). In terms of finished products, 16-year full milk warehouse order price 13350-13500 yuan / ton, standard 2 reference price 13100 yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L glue spot price 12900-13100 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand 17-year big factory tobacco 16800 Yuan/ton, RMB mixed glue 13100-13250 (+150). In terms of synthetic rubber, butadiene prices have risen, East China Qiluding Benzene 1502 13300-13500 (+500), East China Daqing Petrochemical Shuding 13200-13500 (+500). In September, Pingshui RMB mixed rubber is currently expected to be delivered at 500-800. The price difference between Hujiao and Nikko is about 491 US dollars. It is still held by Japan Airlines. The outer sheet of cigarettes is 1910 (+20) USD/ton. The spread of Hujiao and imported US dollar cigarettes is -392 yuan/ton. It rose in January. The US dollar cigarette arbitrage window showed a big increase in selling pressure. The price difference between Japan's main rubber and Singapore's standard rubber in recent months is 389 US dollars / ton. Non-standard arbitrage can be considered to gradually build a position to buy the US dollar far-month mixed-air 01 contract, 09 is still vulnerable to falling after the old warehouse order is suppressed, the main January contract is also facing the pressure of tobacco arbitrage, it is recommended that the arbitrage window open when it is open.

LL: L1801 gapped higher in early trading yesterday, rising 2.16% to close at 9675, coal chemical auction price of 9300, supported by futures high opening, the price is slightly higher, futures premium spot 375 points, 91 spread is currently -185. In terms of overhaul, the large-scale equipment maintenance in the early stage was basically resumed, and the Sino-German Mengda PE unit is now operating at low load, producing 7042. Shenhua Xinjiang 270,000 tons of high-voltage devices 7.22 temporary parking for 15 days, due to equipment failure problems, driving time is postponed. Zhongtian Hechuang 300,000 tons of LL units 7.20 parking. Tianjin combined with 120,000 tons of LL equipment 8.1 parking, driving time to be determined. Pucheng clean energy 300,000 PE full-density device will be parked on the evening of the 4th, and it is scheduled to restart on the 11th. In terms of new installations, the 450,000 tons/year PE unit for the second phase of the olefin coal-to-liquids project is currently parked. Local environmental pressures limit terminal demand, and downstream factories maintain low operating rates, which is not conducive to demand. However, petrochemical inventories were 655,000 tons yesterday, once again slightly lower, maintaining a relatively low level, or limiting the future price of further decline. Considering that it is about to enter the greenhouse season, and the daily MACD green column is short, the 10D line MACD is about to be a golden fork, and the LL callback may come to an end and enter the range volatility. It is recommended that the operation be short-term, high-low and low-suction, medium and long-term. Single can also enter the market on a dip.

PP: Due to the long-term rendering of major industrial products, PP1801 opened up 3.19% to close at 8810, Shenhua bid price 8410, futures gap opened higher, which has a certain boost to the spot market price. The current operating rate of powder is 57.87%, which is slightly lower. The mainstream transaction in East China is 8350-8400 yuan/ton, and the price difference of grain powder is 100. In terms of overhaul, the 300,000-ton PP unit of China Coal Mengda was driving normally, and the PP unit was normally producing L5E89. Zhongtian Hechuang PP loop pipe device (350,000 tons/year) was started on August 13 and produced T30S. The old PP equipment of Liaotong Chemical started PPB240 on August 14 with a production capacity of 60,000 tons/year, and the total capacity of new and old plants was 310,000 tons/year. Changzhou Fude 300,000 tons PP device parking has no clear driving time. The Shenhua Baotou Coal Chemical Project PP plant (300,000 tons/year) produces L5D98, which is scheduled to be converted in the near future. Pucheng Clean Energy PP (400,000 tons/year) was started on August 11 and is currently producing brushed HP550J. Datang International Duolun Coal Chemical PP Plant Second Line (230,000 tons/year) originated from low-melting impact copolymer LC1813. On August 10, it temporarily stopped for parking due to failure, and the parking lasted about 10 days. Shenhua Yulin 600,000 tons MTO project contains 300,000 tons of PP, PP equipment will be converted to S1003 on weekends. In terms of new production capacity, the second-stage upstream plant of the olefin coal-to-liquids project is being started, and the 600,000-ton/year PP plant has no clear driving plan. Although there have been installations in the near future, there will be no significant decline in production supply. The environmental inspection team entered Shandong, and downstream demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The PP91 spread today narrowed to -225, and the shifting movement was basically completed. Affected by the surge in major domestic industrial products, the daily MACD green column of PP is short, the MACD dynamic gold fork on the 10th line, the callback has come to an end, and it has entered the range volatility market. It is recommended that the operation can be short-term, high-low and low-suction, medium-and long-term and long-term. You can also enter the market on a dip.

Methanol: In terms of spot, the port market is actively rising, the inland market is narrowly consolidated, and some areas are slightly declining. Most regions are selling at a steady price, and the downstream replenishment is basically over. The short-term mainland market may be weak, and port inventories rose sharply. Demand is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the short-term port market will continue to rise. In terms of technology, both KD and MACD have signs of gold cross, but Bollinger’s mouth is not obvious. Short-term attention to whether the neckline is stable or not, and standing firm today to break through today’s high point, it will establish a rising trend. On the operation, it is recommended to wait and see.

Early review of non-ferrous metals

copper

After the bright rise of the whole line, the callback was launched on Thursday night, and the Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated. Last week, copper stocks fell sharply by nearly 5% to continue to support copper prices. Affected by the national strike of Peruvian mining workers, some mines were restricted. In addition, China's restrictions on waste seven types of imports have reduced the supply of scrap copper, directly affecting the import volume of about 75-900,000 tons, and the supply of raw materials for market speculation has rebounded again. Demand for downstream power grids, automobiles, and air conditioners has maintained rapid growth. The long-term copper price center is expected to continue to move upwards, and it is recommended to do more on dips.

aluminum

Shanghai aluminum night plate quickly fell back. Shandong will shut down Weiqiao Venture Group to build an electrolytic aluminum project in violation of regulations, involving a production capacity of more than 3 million tons. Previously, China ordered 28 cities to limit production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina by 30% during the heating season, and the capacity is expected to be reignited. Domestic aluminum inventories are still at historically high levels. The short-term de-capacity policy has not yet been effectively implemented, and the policy is still unclear. The current rise is a long-term early release expectation, focusing on 16,000 support.

Zinc

Boosted by funds and fundamentals, zinc prices hit a 10-year high on Thursday, but the night plate was adjusted back. Inventories of zinc ingots in the two cities continued to decline, supporting the high price of zinc. From January to June, the output of zinc concentrate was 1.956 million tons, a slight increase of 2.5%. However, domestic zinc mines were affected by environmental protection and integration of mining rights, and new capacity was lower than expected. Although the early maintenance companies have resumed production, there are still smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui in the third quarter. It is expected that the national refined zinc production will decline year-on-year in the second and third quarters. The spot premium is expanding, and the support under Shanghai zinc is strong. It is recommended to do more on dips.

nickel

Nickel prices remain strong and volatile. The price of upstream mines remained stable, and the port inventory level rebounded. In October, the main nickel-producing areas in the Philippines entered the rainy season, and the expected supply of nickel mines was at risk. Downstream stainless steel stocks returned to low levels, steel mills' profit and demand expectations turned better, and the spillover effect of domestic steel demand driving steel prices continued to support nickel prices. It is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips.

The above comments were provided by Xue Na, Sun Minglei, Li Xiaodong, Zhou Yifang, Bian Shuyang, Xu Yuyin, Wang Zeyong, Feng Xiao, Sheng Wenyu, He Lin, Liu Bingxin.

(Editor: Chen Hao HF072)