March does not matter whether it will reappear in April

Our reporter Zhang Qinfeng

Crossing the end of the season, on April 2, the market funds surface rebounded as scheduled, and the monetary market interest rates for all maturities fell across the board. The representative inter-bank market 7-day repo rate DR007 fell to around 2.7%, which is lower than the hub since the beginning of the year. position. The industry believes that at the beginning of the month, the market funds are not worried. It is expected that the central bank will maintain a net withdrawal of funds. With the cumulative effect of net return, the impact of fiscal tax collection will increase the monthly capital fabrics. In the face of two consecutive months of taxation, the tightness of funds and the mode of operation of monetary policy will become an important basis for investors to verify whether the central bank's monetary policy orientation is fine-tuned.

Cross-season net return continues

On April 2, the central bank continued to suspend the open market operation, and the 20 billion yuan central bank reversed the repurchase due to achieve a net return. So far, the central bank has not carried out open market operations for 7 consecutive days, and the net retreat for the 10th consecutive day.

As the first quarter of this year, the liquidity situation at the end of March and the central bank's monetary policy operation have received much attention. A bond investment manager said that since the beginning of the year, the funds have continued to exceed expectations, the market's perception of monetary policy orientation has gradually changed. Some people believe that the improvement of liquidity may not only be caused by seasonal factors and temporary regulation by the central bank, but in late March and April and May, it is regarded as an important window to verify the orientation of monetary policy. If the central bank maintains a relatively loose operation and the funding is loose, the view that the central bank's policy orientation is fine-tuned is expected to be supported.

However, in late March, the central bank has been returning net liquidity through reverse repurchase; since March 20, it has accumulated a net return of 500 billion yuan.

Since 2017, the central bank has insisted on cutting the peak of liquidity, that is, when the liquidity deviates from the neutral moderate level, the net delivery corresponds to the tightness of the funds, and the net return corresponds to the looseness of the funds. Therefore, in the past two weeks, the central bank has continuously implemented a net return, first indicating that the recent liquidity supply and demand problem is not serious.

In the past two weeks, some of the maturity funds have been tightened by the end of the quarter, but the overall liquidity of the banking system is still relatively stable, and short-term liquidity has remained abundant for most of the time.

From the perspective of the interest rate of funds, due to the influence of cross-season factors, the inter-bank bond repo rate in March has risen. The first-month and 21-day repo rates have been higher in the first half, and the 14-day and 7-day repurchase in the second half. The interest rate gradually took over the rising banner, and the overnight interest rate at the end of the month also showed a rapid rise, reappearing the situation in which the short-term and medium-term funds rose in turn before the end of the season. However, it is worth noting that after 14 days and 7 days of funds in the second half of March, the repurchase rate will fall rapidly after 21 days and longer. The 3-month Shibor will continue to decline in the second half of March. It indicates that the rise in money market interest rates is mainly affected by short-term factors at the end of the season, while the second indicates that market liquidity expectations are still relatively optimistic.

Welcome to the observation window

“The central bank’s continuous net withdrawal shows that it does not want excessive liquidity, but it is still necessary to observe whether the monetary policy operation will return to the neutral tightness.” The bond investment manager said that considering the fiscal expenditure at the end of the quarter, Larger, it is reasonable for the central bank to conduct appropriate hedging through net withdrawal. Facing the next two months of taxation, the tightness of funds and monetary policy operation will become an important basis for verifying the monetary policy orientation of the central bank. .

Analysts believe that after the Spring Festival, the market funds can continue to be loose. The reason may be that the cash return after the Spring Festival still forms a positive contribution. At the same time, the fiscal amount is large at the end of the quarter, and the local debt has not been issued on a large scale, and the impact on liquidity is not obvious. . Statistics show that in March, local governments issued a total of 191 billion yuan of local debt, far less than the 45.9 billion yuan in March 2017.

After the inter-season, with the impact of regulatory assessment factors subsiding, short-term liquidity is expected to pick up, and the funding problem in the first half of April should be small.

Analysts believe that the volatility of funds in April will mainly appear in the second half of the month. At the beginning of the fiscal year, the fiscal tax collection is accelerating the issuance of local bonds, and the substantial increase in fiscal deposits is the biggest test.

At the beginning of the first quarter of the year, China’s fiscal revenue usually increases rapidly. In history, April was the traditional tax big month. Since 2013, the increase in fiscal deposits in April has exceeded 500 billion yuan. This is mainly due to the fact that enterprises in the first quarter of the season are required to pay taxes such as the previous quarter's income tax. Another market source suggested that the supply of local bonds in the first quarter of this year was lower than seasonal, which made the supply pressure in April increase. This month, local bond issuance is likely to accelerate, and the fiscal bank will be temporarily increased, which will have an impact on the liquidity of the money market.

Sun Fengbin of Tianfeng Securities further pointed out that the fiscal expenditure in the first quarter of this year is relatively strong, but the annual budget is limited, and the large expenditure at the beginning of the year will reduce the subsequent expenditure space. Therefore, in April, while the increase in fiscal revenue contributions, it is also necessary to consider the impact of the relatively slow pace of fiscal expenditure.

According to the tax schedule, the impact of the tax period around April 18 will be more obvious, and the MLF will be affected by the April 17th, and the funds will face some pressure. Further, in May, the enterprise income tax of the previous year will be settled and settled. The increase in fiscal deposits for the month will not be small. In the face of two consecutive months of tax disturbances, how will the central bank operate? Whether the funds can maintain a stable and loose trend since the beginning of the year may be a better window for observing the central bank's monetary policy orientation.

Return to true neutrality

At present, the market still has different views on the liquidity situation. Some people think that the loose situation is expected to continue since the beginning of the year, and there are also views that the situation of the fund face “the March is not tight in April” may reappear. What is actually reflected behind is the difference in views on monetary policy orientation.

"In the face of the tax factor, if the central bank actively operates, the funds will continue to be loose and loose, and will further support the view that the monetary policy will be fine-tuned. If there is a recurrence of "the March is not tight in April," the market liquidity is expected to face Correction." The aforementioned bond investment manager said.

The investment manager believes that monetary policy may not be greatly relaxed, but compared with last year, this year's liquidity environment will be improved. The reason is that after the continuous de-leverage of the past year, the capital market has been unable to undertake further liquidity tightening, and the real economy cannot afford excessive financing costs. In recent times, money market liquidity has been characterized by marginal improvement. This is also related to the downward trend of the real economy facing a certain degree of growth. The possibility of increased trade friction also reduces the probability of significant liquidity tightening in China. In terms of supervision, it is now entering a period of stable leverage. At the same time, the government work report emphasizes that the tightness is moderate and the main valve of the money supply is managed. The change of the formulation also means that the liquidity may be marginally stabilized. Therefore, the liquidity environment in 2018 will be looser than the margin of 2017, and there will be some improvement.

CITIC Securities 600030, the chief executive of the stock market, clearly stated that this year's total liquidity will still not appear large, but the liquidity stratification will be eased. However, de-leverage and strong supervision continue, and monetary policy has not yet turned loose.

The CICC research report pointed out that monetary policy was loose in the first quarter, but the neutral attitude did not change fundamentally. It is necessary to guard against the small-scale repair of funds, but this year monetary policy is expected to return to “neutral”, meaning mobile The overall sex will be better than 2017. The reason behind this is that, first, after the institutional reform, monetary policy is forced to reduce the pressure on leverage; secondly, in the process of credit return, the consumption of capital adequacy and ultra-storage is accelerated, and the central bank needs to be hedged; third, the past paragraph Time-tight monetary policy has produced new “distortions”, such as the expansion of monetary funds, the high cost of issuing interest rate bonds, and the shrinking of direct financing. Fourth, financial de-leveraging has been somewhat inhibited. Fifth, the growth rate of social financing Downside, broad fiscal contraction, increased trade frictions, etc., have slightly increased economic growth concerns.

It is worth mentioning that after more than a year of de-leveraging, the internal leverage of the financial system has been controlled, and the industry chain has apparently de-leveraging. In the past, some unreasonable financing needs have been suppressed, and the capital transfer chain has been gradually streamlined. Endogenous stability is also expected to gradually improve.

In general, in the context of the return to normalization of global monetary policy, coupled with the economic growth resilience is still sufficient, China's monetary policy is likely to be significantly relaxed, but in the case of market interest rates have been spontaneously overshoot, monetary policy operations are expected to return to true neutrality. The liquidity will be moderately moderate and the stability will be better than 2017.

(Editor: He Yihua HN110)