Lin Jun: People who can't make money have a common problem.

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Lin Jun, Chairman of Shanghai Hongkai Investment

Boss trader, buddy to do risk control, will mess up products

Today's topic is about how asset management controls risk. We also made a FOF fund before. At that time, we contacted many private equity institutions. During the process of discussion, I found that the problems they faced were the same as those we had encountered before. In particular, the stock market crash since June last year has caused most of the private equity income to drop sharply. We also began to reflect on how this happened. Later, we found that we have already encountered this problem.

How to control risk, I believe that every private equity firm has a degree of internal control of risk control, but I think this internal control is useless and ineffective. why? Very simple question, most of the private placements are the bosses in the trade, the guys are doing the risk control, the guys look at the boss every day, the boss’s position, you go to give him the risk control, I think this is not realistic, so control Risk is a very difficult thing. Of course, we can't change this situation. Therefore, when we select asset management institutions, including our own internal control, we also try to avoid bosses' trades and folks' risk control. Although we can't change this situation, we can at least pass some A realistic case, see how much power this buddy has to cut the boss's position. I think that when it comes to big risk events, there may be better results.

The risks you can see, I think it is an opportunity.

For those who do the transaction, the most traded is the risk, because we are constantly profiting from risk transfer. Our definition of risk, I feel a little different from others for so many years, we see opportunities, rarely see risks, because I feel that with only some economic theories, or some experience in trading, There is no way to cover this overly complicated trading market, so the risks we can see are what we think are opportunities.

Of course, it is not that we ignore risks, we also pay great attention to risks, but we believe that risks are not calculated. When the stock market was 5,000 points last year, the risk was great, but after it fell, it would be a big deal to lose money. This loss is limited. I think this kind of loss can be seen and estimated.

What is risk? In terms of investment experience in the past few years, we have shorted gold in the past few years. We have encountered a risk event that Malaysia Airlines lost its connection, causing our assets to fluctuate. After a while, Malaysia Airlines went to Ukraine and was beaten again. We lost money that night, and you said how to calculate this thing. Including the short-selling PTA last year, I felt that there were nearly 600,000 tons of stocks. The bulls were definitely unable to pick up the goods, and the prices have been falling. We are very happy. Who knows that the Fujian PX project site suddenly exploded, and then The two-day daily limit caused us to lose money again. Therefore, from these two cases, we believe that investment has little credibility, and we are likely to encounter such strange things every day.

I watched one of the 40 books recommended by Cheung Kong Business School a few years ago. The black swan written by Talebu, I suddenly read this book, whether it is our attention, whether it is ignored or not, the risks are It is ubiquitous, and we simply can't estimate it. Including the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1998 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, I also been doing my homework and reading many domestic theories and articles. But before the crisis, I found a very strange phenomenon, that is, basically no What is the big deal? The market is going to have huge risks right away. The market is going to collapse soon, or you have the opportunity to say short, we just saw some data changes, but whether this data change can form a trend, we also Can't estimate it. So from the trading career of many years, we have concluded that the risk is difficult to estimate.

Why do veterans have fewer opportunities in the market?

We have been hiring for the past two years, but we are now going to campus recruitment because the changes in the investment market are faster than the changes in the current society. There are also many talent experts who are summing up, saying that what kind of people should be asked by a company, whether it is a blank piece of paper, or a person who has many years of experience in business. Generally speaking, enterprise recruitment is a person who has experience, but in our finance The market, now I find that it is not used. The so-called experience and qualifications represent the past. After this market has contacted a lot of amnesty, I found that the real big brothers have a commonality. They do not rely on one or two experiences. With 10 years and 20 years, their learning ability is very strong, and each trader's approach includes understanding of the market. And after interviewing a lot of people's methods of operation through interviews, I found that people who can't make money have a common problem, that is, they have been using one or two trading techniques that they think are a little careful.

Now everyone can feel that it is getting harder and harder to make money in this market, whether it is stocks or futures. I think that instead of using one or two experiences for 10 years and 20 years, it is better to use a person who used to be a blank paper. Because he is young, he can quickly climb up when he falls, and his mentality may be even more Healthy. The risk is in front of people without any experience and in front of market veterans, I think it is similar. For the market veterans, there are actually fewer and fewer opportunities. Because of the past experience to capture new investment opportunities, I don’t think it’s a set of things. It’s not as good as a blank person. It may not really have any experience. Instead, I saw opportunities and I was not afraid to fall because I had not lost. So I think young people are opportunities, and our market veterans will slowly be eliminated.

There may be only one chance to seize a lifetime.

The next step is to talk about the experience. There are 7 opportunities in a person's life. I think it is basically a historical opportunity. Maybe you can make money, you can make you famous, and you can make your career a step, but this 7 The second chance is not something we can catch, because we were too young in the first three times. These historical events happened when we couldn’t control it, so the first three times were basically wasted.

Well, the next two times, it is estimated that we were all seven and eighty at the time, and it has been out of touch with the society, so I have two major opportunities in life, I think we can basically give up. There are two opportunities in the middle. You may also misjudge these two opportunities. In fact, the opportunity we can really seize may be once in a lifetime, so once this opportunity is created, it must not be missed. I also said in my biography. The most real thing I feel is that the stock market rose from 1000 points in 2005. You can go to Baidu to see the story I told.

I regret entering the futures industry because there are too many pits

Before the house price surged, I basically didn't talk about futures. I can't go to the conclusion. I can tell you that it may be up or down, but I don't recommend it to speculation. Why? I have been regretting a few years ago. I feel that I have made a mistake in entering the futures industry because there are too many pits. There is a cartoon on the Internet. The starting point of life is to the end of Xiaohongqi. It is a straight line with a 45-degree angle. At a glance, I see the target. Many people do futures to make stocks. This is also the mentality of the stock. I think I can make much money, but actually do it. What about the transaction process? That is, the second picture, the line becomes zigzag, the top of each saw tooth is not a monster, there is a big stone, and the small red flag is still at the end of the 40 degree angle, but it must be hard and hard. Going to that end, so the actual transaction process is completely different. Therefore, I have not been praising futures. I feel that it is too tragic to make futures. Basically, only one person in 100 people can earn some money. If the trading time is too long, the person may eventually lose money.

Partner system is the inevitable trend of private equity development

Everyone has seen "Speed ​​and Passion 7", telling the story of British special forces killer Ian Shaw revenge for his brother. The whole film perfectly interprets a profound word: Family, which is the protagonist Toledo often said. The classic line "we are family". This story I told my team, this year, many individual investors in the futures stocks, from the retracement and income are compared to our private equity institutions, I think the problem is the same as this movie, a People's ability is stronger, and it is better than a group of people. We often say that "two people are united and their profits are broken." Then "partnership is also a heart, and it is also a profit." Therefore, I think the trend of private equity development is partnership. Everyone is in a group and then gathers various elites. As the old saying goes, "3 stinkers, the top of Zhuge Liang", teamwork, always think of a good idea. Moreover, the biggest advantage of teamwork is that there is a reasonable division of labor, which can truly make the risk control programmatic and standardized, and can make the whole investment link can be systematically managed.

Really, I think a good company is like Huawei. I have read more about Huawei recently. Huawei is a very wonderful company. The first one has never been listed. Second, its boss has very few shares. It basically did. Most executives hold shares in Huawei. Ren Zhengfei is very bullish, but if he is the only one, the company will not develop to the present. It relies on every employee to contribute to this platform. Therefore, I think that in the asset management industry, from the perspective of equity structure, the partnership system is the inevitable trend of development.