Red wine welcomes structural investment opportunities in 2012

After experiencing the decline in 2011, the current price of red wine assets has stabilized. Although the international economic situation in 2012 is still not optimistic, under the support of strong market demand, varieties with unique themes will welcome investment opportunities.

China's tightening dragged down the international wine market in the first half of 2011, and it began to decline in July. From July 2011 onwards, the five major wineries in the international market denominated in USD fell by 25%. From the perspective of the domestic market, the data provided by the Shanghai Wine Exchange Center shows that since July 2011, the wine prices of the five major wineries have started to decline. The varieties have declined in all years, and the high-priced varieties have seen a large drop. Among the varieties delivered in the Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, from November 2010 to July 2011, Lafi 2003B saw a decrease of 28%, Rafi 2005B had a decrease of 31%, and Rafi 2008 had a decrease of 44%; The decrease in variety is relatively slow, such as the drop of 12% in Latour 2007B and 19% in Margaux 2007B.

Regarding the reasons for the red wine slump in 2011, the Shanghai Wine Exchange Center pointed out that in macro terms, it was mainly due to the general poor performance of the global investment market in 2011, the United States and Europe were affected by the debt crisis, and emerging economies such as China’s inflation were high. Seriously affected the performance of the global economy. China has adopted a tight monetary policy because of high inflation. Since China is a major buyer of international bulk commodities and red wine assets, China’s tightening has affected demand and dragged down the entire market.

2012: Demand is still strong Factors affecting the price of red wine In addition to the macroeconomic environment, the most important is the supply and demand situation. From the perspective of supply, in 2011, the output of each winery was limited and there was no possibility of increasing production. However, the quality was different in different years. The wine prices in good years were high, and the price of the whole market, including the previous years, was from To play a positive role and continue to issue high prices will also put pressure on the market.

The Shanghai Wine Exchange Center pointed out that after two major years of 2009 and 2010, the quality and pricing of the 2011 year are particularly critical. If the 2011 vintage is still a large year, the winery continues to issue at a high price, which means that the expansion of high-end wines will increase the pressure on the market; if the quality of the 2011 vintage is relatively low, the pricing of the winery will be lower, which may benefit the market.

In general, the market expects the 2011 vintage to be a general year, which is good for the market. The manor on the left bank of Bordeaux said that the 2011 year is challenging and the right bank is relatively light. David Pernet of wine consultancy company Sovinvins thinks: “After the 2009 and 2010 years, 2011 has brought us back to reality. The difference between the first wine and the second wine in 2011 is worth noting, and the quality of fine wines will fall between Between 1996 and 2006."

From the demand side, the demand for imported red wine in the Chinese market has maintained a strong upward trend in recent years. According to customs statistics, the import volume of bottled wine continued to rise in 2011, and the amount of imports rose faster, reflecting the strong consumer demand in the market. The Shanghai Wine Exchange Center pointed out that with the popularization of wine culture, the consumption pattern is quietly changing. With the exception of Southeast coastal cities, the consumption of inland first-tier cities is rapidly increasing, and the wine market is gradually spreading from east to west. The potential is very great. Since July 2011, the prices of the five major wineries have undergone substantial adjustments, the risks have been greatly relieved, and the investment funds have increased their attention to the five major wineries. It is expected that more of them will enter the market in the future.

Although the global economic growth slowed down in 2012, the policy will be better than in 2011. After July 2011, the wine prices of the five major wineries began to fall and entered the adjustment phase. Regarding the investment situation in 2012, the Shanghai Wine Exchange Center pointed out that the five major wineries faced less pressure on supply, a steady increase in consumer demand, improvement in the macro environment, and an overall bullish market. “The five major winery indexes are above 800 points, with a high margin of safety, which is a good opportunity for Jiancang and it is recommended to buy on a bargain. In terms of investment, it is recommended to buy varieties with unique themes such as Rafi 2000B, and the price is low. Variety such as Admiralty 2007B." Shanghai Red Wine Trading Center analyst suggested.