2012 Third Quarter Textile and Garment Industry Data Report

Industry data

In October, the clothing retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 10.91% year-on-year. According to statistics from the China National Business Information Center, retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 9.54% year-on-year in October 2012, an increase of 4.79 percentage points from the previous month. ; Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of retail sales fell by 3.23 percentage points, the smallest decline in recent months. In October, the growth rate rebounded. On the one hand, it was related to the low base of the same period of last year. In addition, near the end of the year, retail enterprises increased sales promotion efforts to a certain extent, which led to the growth of sales. Among them, apparel retail sales increased 10.91% year-on-year, an increase of 5.14 percentage points from the previous month. It is worth noting that clothing retail sales grew rapidly in October, with a growth rate of 10.39%, which is the second highest growth rate this year, and the retail sales of apparel. The gap between growth rates was only 0.52 percentage points, which explained to a large extent the intensity of apparel seasonal promotions and destocking promotions; the sales growth of gold and silver jewellery rebounded, and retail sales increased by 6.12% over the previous month, which was higher than the previous month. 3.78 percentage points.

In October, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and needle textiles of enterprises above designated size increased by 18.7% year-on-year: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,893.4 billion yuan in October 2012, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% (real growth of 13.5 after deducting price factors). %). Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods of enterprises (units) above designated size reached 902.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%; from January to October, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,685.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.1% year-on-year (a real increase of 11.8% after deducting price factors). From a ring perspective, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.34% in October. For the breakdown of the retail sales of enterprises (units) above designated size, the total retail sales of apparel, shoes, hats, and needle textiles reached 90.6 billion yuan in October, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year; the total retail sales in January-October were 757.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. .

In October, clothing prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2012, the national consumer price level rose by 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, clothing prices rose 2.7% year-on-year, apparel prices rose 3.0%, and footwear prices rose 1.7%. In October, the national consumer price level fell by 0.1% in the first quarter. Among them, clothing prices rose 0.9% month-on-month, apparel prices rose 1%, and footwear prices rose 0.6%.

In October, the value of textile and apparel exports increased by 15.8% year-on-year: According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the export value of textiles and clothing increased by 8% and 20.5% year-on-year in October 2012, and the value of textiles and apparel exports fell by 5.77% month-on-month. %, 11.35%; From January to October, the export value of clothing and textiles increased by 2.6% and 1% respectively year-on-year.

Economic survey

The Keqiao Textile Business Index continued to increase by 0.14 points. The price index closed at 105.65 points, up by 0.14 points from the previous period, and by 1.11 points compared with 106.76 points at the beginning of the year. In this issue, from the first classification, the price indices of raw materials, grey cloths, apparel fabrics, and home textiles rose by 0.01, 0.53, 0.13, and 0.1 points, with the exception of the price index of apparel accessories falling by 0.27 points.

The Shengze Silk Economy Index continued to rise 0.05 points. The price index closed at 102.19 points, a slight increase of 0.05 points from the previous period; it was 0.88 points higher than the price of 101.31 at the beginning of the year.

Raw material price

The price index of cotton prices both inside and outside China went down to RMB 18,754/ton, and the average weekly price was RMB 18,741/ton, which was slightly higher than the average price of 1,8712.2 yuan/ton in the previous week. The Cootlook A Index closed at 79.4 cents/lb. The average weekly price was 80.05 cents/lb, which was a decrease of 1.23% from the previous week's average price of 81.05 cents/lb.

The price of chemical fiber continued to fall: In addition to the price of polyester filament DTY and acrylic staple fiber in the previous week, the price of viscose staple fiber rose by 100 yuan/ton last week, polyester filament FDY, polyester filament POY, polyester staple fiber, The prices of viscose filaments, filament yarns, filament yarns, and filament yarns continue to show a different degree of correction. The recall ranged from 25 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, of which, filaments The price of conventional spinning and viscose filaments dropped by 200,200 yuan/ton.

Market performance

Returning to the adjustment trend: Last week, the textile and clothing index (SW) closed at 1,452.52 points, with a weekly gain of -4.11%. During the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose -2.85% during the week; Shanghai A Indexed the week's gains and losses -2.27%.

Apparel home textiles sector across the board: last week's textile manufacturing index (SW) and clothing home textiles index (SW), the week were up and down -2.63%, -5.43%. Looking at the segment segments, the apparel and home textile sector fell across the board. The weekly rises and falls (weighted average total market capitalization) for men's wear, women's wear, casual wear, shoes and hats, and home textiles were -5.35%, -8.45%, 6.23%, and 6.21 respectively. %, 5.21%, reflecting the market's indigestion dilemma of the apparel textiles sector, the decline in the amount of orders, and the end-consumer outlook is not optimistic about the expression.

Textile stocks performed very well: From the perspective of stock performance, (1) In the textile manufacturing category, 10 stocks recorded positive gains, ST stocks generally rose, and Wah Shing shares continued to rise, resulting in a sharp decline in performance and weakening the enthusiasm for capital recovery. ; ST Maier due to major shareholders, Blue Ding Group want to take 2 billion increase and continuous limit of two days; decline in the forefront of the list, Taiya shares due to deep decline in full-year performance expectations, weekly decline of 10.27%, Huafang Textile, E-Tech and Shenzhen Textile also experienced a deeper correction with the retreat of the previous concept stocks, with weekly declines of 9.8%, 9.7%, and 8.1%. (2) In the home textile category, none of the stocks recorded positive gains last week, and the smaller ones were Meier Ya and Busen. The declines of the two stocks were 0.54% and 1.59%, respectively; Special ranks fell in the top three, with a decline of more than 10%.

Valuation level

The valuation is clearly lower: As of November 9, 2012, the TTM (holistic method, excluding negative values) of the textile and apparel (SW) segment was 17.6 times, of which textile manufacturing was 20.3 times and textile home textiles was 16.5 times. The valuation level was higher than before. The week was significantly lower; but compared with the historical level (the average valuation was 27.3 times, 30.7 times, the median was 23.8 times and 29.8 times respectively), and the current valuation is still at a relatively low level.

The valuation premium rate narrowed once again: As of November 9, 2012, the SW premium valuation premium rate was 53.04%, the textile manufacturing sub-slab premium rate was 76.87%, and the clothing home textile sub-slab premium rate was 43.65%, both higher than before. The week has narrowed.